Climate change impacts on vegetation and water cycle in the Euro-Mediterranean region,studied by a likelihood approach

Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO₂ in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase.     

Present and future climate resources for various types of tourism in the Bay of Palma,Spain

The Bay of Palma, in Mallorca, is a leading region for beach holidays in Europe. It is based on a mass tourism model strongly modulated by seasonality and with high environmental costs. Main tourism stakeholders are currently implementing complementary activities to mitigate seasonality, regardless of climate change. But climate is—and will remain—a key resource or even a limitation for many types of tourism. Assessing the present conditions and exploring the future evolution of climate potential for these activities have become a priority in this area. To this end, the climate index for tourism (CIT)—originally designed to rate the climate resource of beach tourism—is adapted to specifically appraise cycling, cultural tourism, football, golf, motor boating, sailing and hiking. Climate resources are derived by using observed and projected daily meteorological data. Projections have been obtained from a suite of Regional Climate Models run under the A1B emissions scenario. To properly derive CITs at such local scale, we apply a statistical adjustment. Present climate potentials ratify the appropriateness of the Bay of Palma for satisfactorily practicing all the examined activities. However, optimal conditions are projected to degrade during the peak visitation period while improving in spring and autumn. That is, climate change could further exacerbate the present imbalance between the seasonal distributions of ideal climate potentials and high attendance levels. With this information at hand, policy makers and regional tourism stakeholders can respond more effectively to the great challenge of local adaptation to climate change.     

Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Effects of compression ratio,swirl augmentation techniques and ethanol addition on the combustion of CNG–biodiesel in a dual-fuel engine

The diminishing resources and continuously increasing cost of petroleum in association with their alarming pollution levels from diesel engines has led to an interest in finding alternative fuels to diesel. Emission control and engine efficiency are two of the most important parameters in current engine design. The impending introduction of emission standards such as Euro IV and Euro V has forced research towards developing new technologies for combating engine emissions. This paper examines the effects of compression ratio, swirl augmentation techniques and ethanol addition on the combustion of compressed natural gas (CNG) blended with Honge oil methyl esters (HOME) in a dual fuel engine. The present results show that the combustion of HOME and 15% ethanol blend with CNG induction in a dual-fuel engine operated in optimized parameters at an injection timing of 27° Before Top Dead Centre and a compression ratio of 17.5 resulted in acceptable combustion emissions and improved brake thermal efficiencies. The implementation of swirl augmentation techniques increased brake thermal efficiencies (BTEs) and considerably reduced combustion emissions such as smoke, HC, CO and NO_x. The addition of ethanol also increased BTEs. However, at more than 15% of ethanol in HOME, NO_x emissions increased dramatically.     

Marine organisms as heavy metal bioindicators in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman

In the present study, cadmium and lead concentrations were compared in barnacles, ghost shrimps, polychaetes, bivalves, and sediment from ten different locations along the intertidal zone of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. The results revealed significant differences in the heavy metal concentrations between the organisms with barnacles showing, by far, the highest metal concentrations. The bioaccumulation factor of Cd in different animals follows this pattern with barnacles?>?bivalves?>?polychaetes?>?ghost shrimps, while the pattern for Pb was barnacles?>?polychaetes?>?bivalves?>?ghost shrimps. In most of the stations, sediments showed the lowest lead and cadmium concentrations. Therefore, it is concluded that barnacles with Pb concentrations between 0.17 and 2,016.1 μg/g and Cd concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 147.1 μg/g are the best organisms to be employed in monitoring programs designed to assess pollution with bioavailable metals in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.     

Gemfibrozil modulates cytochrome P450 and peroxisome proliferation-inducible enzymes in the liver of the yellow European eel (Anguilla anguilla)

The human lipid regulator gemfibrozil (GEM) has been shown to induce peroxisome proliferation in rodents leading to hepatocarcinogenesis. Since GEM is found at biological active concentrations in the aquatic environment, the present study investigates the effects of this drug on the yellow European eel (Anguilla anguilla). Eels were injected with different concentrations of GEM (0.1 to 200 μg/g) and sampled 24- and 96-h post-injection. GEM was shown to inhibit CYP1A, CYP3A and CYP2K-like catalytic activities 24-h post-injection, but at 96-h post-injection, only CYP1A was significantly altered in fish injected with the highest GEM dose. On the contrary, GEM had little effect on the phase II enzymes examined (UDP-glucuronyltransferase and glutathione-S-transferase). Peroxisome proliferation inducible enzymes (liver peroxisomal acyl-CoA oxidase and catalase) were very weakly induced. No evidence of a significant effect on the endocrine system of eels was observed in terms of plasmatic steroid levels or testosterone esterification in the liver.     

Particulate matter speciation profiles for light-duty gasoline vehicles in the United States

Representative profiles for particulate matter particles less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM_2.5) are developed from the Kansas City Light-Duty Vehicle Emissions Study for use in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) vehicle emission model, the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), and for inclusion in the EPA SPECIATE database for speciation profiles. The profiles are compatible with the inputs of current photochemical air quality models, including the Community Multiscale Air Quality Aerosol Module Version 6 (AE6). The composition of light-duty gasoline PM_2.5 emissions differs significantly between cold start and hot stabilized running emissions, and between older and newer vehicles, reflecting both impacts of aging/deterioration and changes in vehicle technology. Fleet-average PM_2.5 profiles are estimated for cold start and hot stabilized running emission processes. Fleet-average profiles are calculated to include emissions from deteriorated high-emitting vehicles that are expected to continue to contribute disproportionately to the fleet-wide PM_2.5 emissions into the future. The profiles are calculated using a weighted average of the PM_2.5 composition according to the contribution of PM_2.5 emissions from each class of vehicles in the on-road gasoline fleet in the Kansas City Metropolitan Statistical Area. The paper introduces methods to exclude insignificant measurements, correct for organic carbon positive artifact, and control for contamination from the testing infrastructure in developing speciation profiles. The uncertainty of the PM_2.5 species fraction in each profile is quantified using sampling survey analysis methods. The primary use of the profiles is to develop PM_2.5 emissions inventories for the United States, but the profiles may also be used in source apportionment, atmospheric modeling, and exposure assessment, and as a basis for light-duty gasoline emission profiles for countries with limited data.

Implications: PM_2.5 speciation profiles were developed from a large sample of light-duty gasoline vehicles tested in the Kansas City area. Separate PM_2.5 profiles represent cold start and hot stabilized running emission processes to distinguish important differences in chemical composition. Statistical analysis was used to construct profiles that represent PM_2.5 emissions from the U.S. vehicle fleet based on vehicles tested from the 2005 calendar year Kansas City metropolitan area. The profiles have been incorporated into the EPA MOVES emissions model, as well as the EPA SPECIATE database, to improve emission inventories and provide the PM_2.5 chemical characterization needed by CMAQv5.0 for atmospheric chemistry modeling.     

Major ionic compositions of fine particulate matter in an animal feeding operation facility and its vicinity

Animal feeding operations (AFOs) produce particulate matter (PM) and gaseous pollutants. Investigation of the chemical composition of PM_2.5 inside and in the local vicinity of AFOs can help to understand the impact of the AFO emissions on ambient secondary PM formation. This study was conducted on a commercial egg production farm in North Carolina. Samples of PM_2.5 were collected from five stations, with one located in an egg production house and the other four located in the vicinity of the farm along four wind directions. The major ions of NH₄⁺, Na⁺, K⁺, SO₄^2?, Cl^?, and NO₃^? were analyzed using ion chromatography (IC). In the house, the mostly abundant ions were SO₄^2?, Cl^?, and K⁺. At ambient stations, SO₄^2?, and NH₄⁺ were the two most abundant ions. In the house, NH₄⁺, SO₄^2?, and NO₃^? accounted for only 10% of the PM_2.5 mass; at ambient locations, NH₄⁺, SO₄^2?, and NO₃^? accounted for 36–41% of the PM_2.5 mass. In the house, NH₄⁺ had small seasonal variations indicating that gas-phase NH₃ was not the only major force driving its gas–particle partitioning. At the ambient stations, NH₄⁺ had the highest concentrations in summer. In the house, K⁺, Na⁺, and Cl^? were highly correlated with each other. In ambient locations, SO₄^2? and NH₄⁺ had a strong correlation, whereas in the house, SO₄^2? and NH₄⁺ had a very weak correlation. Ambient temperature and solar radiation were positively correlated with NH₄⁺ and SO₄^2?. This study suggests that secondary PM formation inside the animal house was not an important source of PM_2.5. In the vicinity, NH₃ emissions had greater impact on PM_2.5 formation.

ImplicationsThe chemical composition of PM_2.5 inside and in the local vicinity of AFOs showed the impact of the AFO emissions on ambient secondary PM_2.5 formation, and the fate and transport of air pollutants associated with AFOs. The results may help to manage in-house animal facility air quality, and to develop regional air quality control strategies and policies, especially in animal agriculture-concentrated areas.     

Volatile Organic Compounds from Coal Tar and Soil Vapor Samples at MGP Sites

This study characterized organic compounds found in New York State manufactured gas plant (MGP) coal tar vapors using controlled laboratory experiments from four separate MGP sites. In addition, a limited number of deep (0.3–1.2 m above coal tar) and shallow (1.2–2.4 m above coal tar) soil vapor samples were collected above the in situ coal tar source at three of these sites. A total of 29 compounds were consistently detected in the laboratory-generated coal tar vapors at 50°C, whereas 24 compounds were detected at 10°C. The compounds detected in the field sample results were inconsistent with the compounds found in the laboratory-generated samples. Concentrations of compounds in the shallow soil vapor sample were either non-detectable or substantially lower than those found in deeper samples, suggesting attenuation in the vadose zone. Laboratory-generated data at 50°C compared the (% non-aromatic)/(% aromatic) ratio and indicated that this ratio may provide good discrimination between coal tar vapor and common petroleum distillates.